It is fashionable to declare various aspects of our current IT world dead. Current supposed corpses include the web itself, PCs and any development framework that is not realtime concoction of js and node. Obviously technology continues to evolve but are these things really doomed? And if so, how long before we all know it?
IMHO the rumors of death are greatly exaggerated for several reasons. Firstly, we just don’t know how users will respond to some changes that are afoot, secondly, some infrastructure changes take time to become sufficiently robust for anything other than pioneer applications and thirdly the fact that a change may be disruptive and is embraced by those who would disrupt doesn’t mean that a noisy advance guard has influence in proportion to the size of its megaphone.
Consider the death of the PC. Apparently we are entering a post-PC age. But are we? What is clear is that new connected devices are gaining mind share and increasing access in circumstances where connectivity would otherwise have been impossible. This is not new. Laptops enabled access which would have been impossible if you had to carry around a tower. I love smartphones and tablets, but I hate entering real data on them and apparently I am not alone. Is it clear quite what the division of labor will be between these devices? Do we even understand what the form factors of choice will be? It’s not clear to me. I have an iMac, Macbook Pro, a Macbook Air, a Kindle, an iPad, an iPhone and a Galaxy Note. If use them for very different things. And a device like the Note makes one wonder quite where the line between a tablet and a phone is. It may well be that it is very different for different people. I suspect that many of us will end up with multiple devices and that an ultraslim like the Air will be in the arsenal. The fact that ALL computing is no longer done with a PC does not spell death for the PC.
What of the web? Apparently the explosion of apps and the growth of one page sites that are actually js apps means the web is on its way out. We will all be happily using stovepipe apps on mobile and reluctantly occasionally accessing websites that aren’t really websites. IMHO this is highly unlikely for the foreseeable future. There is an enormous amount of content ‘on the web’, which can be accessed by URLs and this is incredibly valuable. Furthermore, many of the organizations who have put this information up on the web have an interest in it being readily accessible - not everyone is Facebook. And even if this were not true the massive inertia will make changing this situation take forever.
Last but not least, development frameworks. Old style frameworks like RoR are doomed in the face of the wave of new js ‘frameworks’ like Meteor. It’s exciting stuff, but client server computing is not revolutionary and it will take years before any such new framework is battle tested to the point that any sizable organization will risk their conservative ass on it.
The point is not that new and exciting things will not come along, nor that change is not afoot - it most certainly is. But statements to the effect that this or that is ‘dead’ are IMHO way overblown.